Pakistan National Adaptation Plan 2023: the key points

Report at a glance

The answer in 3 sentences

What is Pakistan's National Adaptation Plan?

Pakistan's National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2023 is the government's main strategy for helping people, farms, cities and nature cope with the climate change that is already happening. It sets out adaptation priorities, covering the agriculture and water nexus, natural capital, urban resilience, human capital, disaster risk management, and gender, youth and vulnerable groups (pp. 3 to 7). It warns that Pakistan is warming faster than the global average, with 1.4 to 3.7°C of warming projected by the 2060s (pp. 16, 20).

Key findings

• Pakistan is warming faster than the world. Mean temperature in Pakistan rose by 0.63°C over the past century. Between 1981 and 2005 the rise was 0.39°C per decade, against 0.18°C for the globe, so warming over Pakistan was "twice as fast as the global mean temperature rise". (Pakistan National Adaptation Plan 2023; p. 16)
• More warming is projected. Temperature increases of 1.4 to 3.7°C are projected by the 2060s, and up to 6.0°C by the 2090s, with larger increases in winter and in the north. (Pakistan National Adaptation Plan 2023; p. 20)
• Heatwaves already kill. In 2015, a heatwave with temperatures as high as 49°C "killed more than 1,200 people in Karachi". (Pakistan National Adaptation Plan 2023; p. 17)
• More people will be exposed to heat. The share of the population exposed to heatwaves each year is expected to increase by 32 percent (RCP 4.5) or 36 percent (RCP 8.5) by 2050. Labour productivity is projected to fall by 7 to 10 percent because of heat stress. (Pakistan National Adaptation Plan 2023; p. 21)
• Water is close to scarcity. Water available per person is about 1,017 cubic metres a year, "perilously close" to the scarcity threshold of 1,000 cubic metres. Water demand is projected to rise 60 percent by 2047. (Pakistan National Adaptation Plan 2023; pp. 16, 37)
• Floods and disasters are costly. The 2022 floods killed more than 1,700 people, a third of them children, and affected 33 million people. Between 1992 and 2021, climate and weather disasters caused US$29.3 billion in economic losses. (Pakistan National Adaptation Plan 2023; p. 17)
• Food and farming are at risk. Production of key crops is projected to be 14 to 50 percent lower with climate change than without it. About 40 percent of households already face food insecurity, which could rise to 60 percent by 2050. (Pakistan National Adaptation Plan 2023; pp. 18, 37)
• Cities face heat and floods. The urban heat-island effect "exacerbates the risks of extreme heat in nearly all Pakistani cities", and Lahore and Karachi have the highest exposure to urban flooding. (Pakistan National Adaptation Plan 2023; p. 4)

Key numbers

Source: Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination (2023), National Adaptation Plan Pakistan 2023. Page numbers are the printed page numbers.

What it means for people in Pakistan

The plan is clear that climate change does not hit everyone equally. It names women, the poor and the landless as particularly affected, and says the poor and landless "have the least capacity to respond" (p. 19). It also names rural people, residents of informal or crowded city settlements, and children (p. 5).

In daily life, the plan's findings point to hotter summers that make outdoor work harder and less productive (p. 21), more pressure on water for homes and farms (pp. 16, 37), and a higher risk of floods in cities like Lahore and Karachi (p. 4). In the north, Pakistan has more than 7,000 glaciers, and rapid melting has led to a 300 percent increase in glacial lake outburst flood events (p. 38).

The plan is a strategy, not a budget. It says the funding needed to carry it out "is significant" (p. 8) and points to the World Bank's estimate that Pakistan needs to invest US$348 billion by 2030, or 10.7 percent of GDP a year, in adaptation and deep decarbonisation together (p. 8).

What the report does not say

• It does not give a separate yearly price tag for the plan itself. The US$348 billion figure it quotes is the World Bank's estimate for adaptation and decarbonisation combined (p. 8).
• Temperature figures for the 2060s and 2090s are projections, not forecasts of a particular summer.
• The Global Climate Risk Index ranking it quotes comes from an outside index (Germanwatch), not from the plan's own analysis (p. 16).
• A plan on paper does not show what has been delivered. Progress depends on provincial action and funding.

How to cite this report

Please cite the original report, not this summary.

Related reading

• Heatwaves in Pakistan: what the evidence says
• Pakistan NDC 3.0 (2025): summary
• World Bank Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report: summary
• Pakistan Floods 2022 PDNA: summary
• IPCC AR6 Chapter 10: what it says about South Asia
• Key facts with original page references