Heatwaves in Pakistan: what the evidence says

The short answer

Are heatwaves in Pakistan getting worse?

Yes. Pakistan has warmed faster than the global average, and the government's own National Adaptation Plan reports a 0.39°C rise per decade over 1981 to 2005, about twice the global rate (NAP 2023, p. 16). Scientists found that climate change made the early 2022 heatwave in Pakistan and India about 30 times more likely and about 1°C hotter (World Weather Attribution, 2022, p. 1). The IPCC and Pakistan's own plans expect heatwaves to become more frequent and more people to be exposed, with the poorest and outdoor workers hit hardest.

What the evidence says, source by source

IPCC AR6 Working Group II, Chapter 10: Asia (2022)

• Observed surface air temperature has been increasing since the 20th century all over Asia (high confidence). (IPCC AR6 WGII Ch. 10; p. 1459)
• Rising temperatures increase the threat of heatwaves across Asia (medium confidence). (IPCC AR6 WGII Ch. 10; p. 1459)
• By 2080, 940 million to 1.1 billion urban dwellers in South and Southeast Asia could face extreme heat for more than 30 days a year (high confidence), "with poorer populations affected the most". The chapter adds that "more frequent hot days and intense heatwaves will increase heat-related deaths". (IPCC AR6 WGII Ch. 10; p. 1460)

World Weather Attribution: the 2022 India and Pakistan heatwave

• "Because of climate change, the probability of an event such as that in 2022 has increased by a factor of about 30." (World Weather Attribution 2022; p. 1)
• "The same event would have been about 1C cooler in a preindustrial climate." At 2°C of global warming, a heatwave like this would become a further 2 to 20 times more likely and 0.5 to 1.5°C hotter than in 2022. (World Weather Attribution 2022; p. 1)
• The heatwave is estimated to have led to at least 90 deaths across India and Pakistan. The authors note their results are "likely conservative" because the observed records are short. (World Weather Attribution 2022; p. 1)

Pakistan National Adaptation Plan (2023)

• Pakistan's mean temperature rose 0.63°C over the past century; in 1981 to 2005 warming over Pakistan was "twice as fast as the global mean temperature rise". (NAP 2023; p. 16)
• In 2015, a heatwave with temperatures as high as 49°C "killed more than 1,200 people in Karachi". (NAP 2023; p. 17)
• The share of people exposed to heatwaves each year is expected to rise by 32 to 36 percent by 2050, and labour productivity to fall 7 to 10 percent because of heat stress. (NAP 2023; p. 21)
• The urban heat-island effect "exacerbates the risks of extreme heat in nearly all Pakistani cities". (NAP 2023; p. 4)

World Bank Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report (2022)

• "Heatwaves are a major threat to Pakistan's labor force", and maximum temperatures "routinely exceed 40°C". (World Bank CCDR 2022; p. 9)
• In central and eastern Punjab, more than 700,000 residents are exposed to heatwaves. (World Bank CCDR 2022; p. 10)
• Heat effects on labour productivity and health account for up to 6 percent of GDP loss by 2050, and heat damage to crops and livestock up to 3 percent. (World Bank CCDR 2022; p. 13)

Pakistan NDC 3.0 (2025)

• Pakistan's 2025 climate plan records new extreme maximum temperature records of 46 to 48°C at Chilas and Bunji in Gilgit-Baltistan. (Pakistan NDC 3.0; p. 6)
• It notes that farmers "face extreme heat and erratic rainfall, leading to water scarcity". (Pakistan NDC 3.0; p. 7)

WHO fact sheet: Heat and health

• Between 2000 and 2019, studies show approximately 489,000 heat-related deaths each year worldwide, 45% of them in Asia. This is a global figure, not one for Pakistan. (WHO fact sheet; Key facts)
• Heat-related deaths among people over 65 rose by approximately 85% between 2000 to 2004 and 2017 to 2021. (WHO fact sheet; Key facts)
• "The negative health impacts of heat are predictable and largely preventable." (WHO fact sheet; Key facts)

Key numbers

Who is most at risk

The sources agree that heat does not affect everyone equally:

• Outdoor and manual workers, who are exposed to excess heat because of their work (WHO fact sheet). The World Bank calls heatwaves "a major threat to Pakistan's labor force" (CCDR, p. 9).
• Poorer people and those without cooling. WHO notes that the urban and rural poor are often more exposed because of low-quality housing and lack of access to cooling. The IPCC expects poorer populations in South Asian cities to be affected most (p. 1460).
• Older people, whose heat-related deaths have risen sharply (WHO fact sheet).
• Women, the landless, children and people in informal settlements, named by Pakistan's National Adaptation Plan as particularly affected by climate change (NAP 2023, pp. 5, 19).
• Farmers and farm workers, through heat damage to crops and livestock (CCDR, p. 13; NDC 3.0, p. 7).

What is still uncertain

• Death counts are incomplete. Heat deaths are often not recorded as heat deaths. The 2022 study's figure of at least 90 deaths was an early estimate (WWA 2022, p. 1).
• Short records. The attribution study says its results are likely conservative because the observed data are short (WWA 2022, p. 1).
• Projections depend on emissions. Figures for 2050 or 2080 are scenarios, not forecasts. The NAP gives a range (32 or 36 percent) depending on the emissions pathway (p. 21).
• Not every year is a heat year. WMO's review of 2025 reports major monsoon floods in Pakistan rather than a major South Asian heatwave, and found the most notable heat in East and Central Asia (WMO Supplement 2025, pp. 6 to 7). Long-term trends matter more than any single summer.
• Humid heat versus dry heat. The 2022 heatwave was a dry heatwave with low humidity (WWA 2022). Humid heat, common in Karachi, affects the body differently and is harder to measure.

What you can do on a hot day

This advice comes from the World Health Organization and the Sindh Provincial Disaster Management Authority's heatwave guidance. Follow local alerts from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and your PDMA.

• Avoid going outside and doing strenuous activity during the hottest time of the day (WHO).
• Drink water regularly, about one cup an hour and at least 2 to 3 litres a day (WHO). Keep water and oral rehydration salts (ORS) at home (PDMA Sindh).
• Wear lightweight, loose-fitting clothes, and use a cool wet cloth on the body (PDMA Sindh).
• Use electric fans only when it is below 40°C. Above 40°C, fans can heat the body (WHO).
• Never leave children or animals in a parked vehicle, even briefly (WHO).
• Check on older neighbours and relatives, especially people over 65 (WHO).
• If someone shows signs of heat exhaustion or heatstroke, get medical help immediately (PDMA Sindh).

Sources: WHO, Heat and health fact sheet, section "What actions should the public take?"; PDMA Sindh, SOPs Heatwave Management 2025, "Role of Community Members".

Related reading

• Why are some city streets so much hotter?
• Heat in the city
• IPCC AR6 Chapter 10: what it says about South Asia
• WMO State of the Climate in Asia 2025: summary
• Pakistan National Adaptation Plan 2023: summary
• World Bank Pakistan CCDR: summary
• Key facts with original page references

How to cite this guide

You may cite this guide as an overview. For a specific number, please cite the original report and page listed above.