IPCC AR6 Chapter 10: what it says about South Asia

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What does the IPCC say about climate change in South Asia?

Chapter 10 of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group II is the IPCC's main assessment of climate impacts, risks and adaptation in Asia, including Pakistan and the rest of South Asia. It finds that temperatures have been rising across Asia since the 20th century (high confidence), and that warming raises the threat of heatwaves, drought in South Asia's dry areas, monsoon floods and glacier melt in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (medium confidence) (p. 1459). It warns that by mid-century the Indus and Ganges basins could face severe water scarcity (high confidence), and that by 2080, 940 million to 1.1 billion city dwellers in South and Southeast Asia could face more than 30 days a year of extreme heat (high confidence) (pp. 1459 to 1460).

A note on wording: the IPCC grades its findings. "High confidence" and "medium confidence" describe how strong the evidence and agreement are. We copy these labels exactly as the chapter prints them.

Key findings for South Asia

• Temperatures are rising everywhere in Asia. "Observed surface air temperature has been increasing since the 20th century all over Asia (high confidence)." (IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 10; p. 1459)
• Heat, drought, monsoon and glaciers. Rising temperatures increase the threat of heatwaves across Asia, droughts in the arid and semi-arid areas of South Asia, "delays and weakening of the monsoon circulation in South Asia", floods in monsoon regions and glacier melting in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (medium confidence). (IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 10; p. 1459)
• The Indus faces water stress. "By mid-21st Century, the international transboundary river basins of Amu Darya, Indus, Ganges could face severe water scarcity challenges due to climatic variability and changes acting as stress multipliers (high confidence)." (IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 10; p. 1459)
• Glaciers and glacier lakes. Asian glaciers lost area and mass during 2006 to 2016 (high confidence); they supply water to about 220 million people downstream. Glacier lakes have grown in number and area over the past decade, and glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) will threaten local and downstream communities (high confidence). (IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 10; p. 1459)
• Food production. Projected impacts include declines in crop production "particularly in South and Southeast Asia", fisheries and aquaculture, with negative effects on food security (medium confidence). Heatwaves, droughts and changing rainfall will remain important drivers of farm vulnerability in South Asia. (IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 10; pp. 1459 to 1460)
• Cities and extreme heat. By 2080, 940 million to 1.1 billion urban dwellers in South and Southeast Asia could be affected by extreme heat lasting more than 30 days a year (high confidence), "with poorer populations affected the most." Climate change will also amplify the urban heat-island effect in South and East Asian cities at 1.5°C and 2°C of warming (medium evidence, high agreement). (IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 10; p. 1460)
• Health. Climate change is increasing vector-borne and water-borne diseases, undernutrition, mental disorders and allergy-related illnesses in Asia (high confidence). The chapter adds that "more frequent hot days and intense heatwaves will increase heat-related deaths." (IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 10; p. 1460)
• Coastal cities and losses. Coastal cities, "especially in South and Southeast Asia", are expected to see significant increases in average annual flood losses between 2005 and 2050 (high confidence). Climate change is already causing economic loss and damage across Asia, and this will increase with more warming (medium confidence). (IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 10; p. 1460)

Key numbers

Source: Shaw, Luo et al. (2022), IPCC AR6 WGII Chapter 10. Page numbers are the printed page numbers of the full Working Group II report.

What it means for Pakistan and South Asia

Pakistan sits where several of this chapter's biggest risks meet: hot plains, a monsoon climate and the glacier-fed Indus. The chapter names the Indus basin among those that could face severe water scarcity by mid-century (p. 1459). That matters because most of Pakistan's farms and cities depend on Indus water.

For people in cities such as Karachi, Lahore or Multan, the heat findings are the most direct. The chapter projects many more days of extreme heat for South Asian city dwellers, with poorer people affected most, and a stronger urban heat-island effect (p. 1460). In the mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, growing glacier lakes raise the risk of sudden outburst floods (p. 1459). The place names here are ours; the chapter speaks of South Asia and the Hindu Kush Himalaya.

What the report does not say

• It does not give one temperature forecast for Pakistan. Most findings are for Asia or South Asia as a whole.
• The crop figures for rice and maize are for India, not Pakistan, and depend on how much warming happens (p. 1460).
• The heat projection for 2080 is a projection under stated assumptions, not a measurement.
• Some sentences in the Executive Summary carry no confidence label. We say so where that is the case, rather than adding one.
• The chapter was finalised in 2021 and published in 2022. Newer events, such as the 2022 Pakistan floods, are covered in other reports.

How to cite this chapter

Please cite the original chapter, not this summary.

Related reading

• Heatwaves in Pakistan: what the evidence says
• WMO State of the Climate in Asia 2025: summary
• IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report: summary
• Pakistan National Adaptation Plan 2023: summary
• Why are some city streets so much hotter?
• Key facts with original page references