Report at a glance
- Full official title
- Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report
- Publisher
- World Bank Group (CCDR Series)
- Date published
- November 2022
- Licence
- Creative Commons CC BY-NC-ND
- Original source
- Official report page (World Bank Open Knowledge Repository) · Original PDF
- Topics covered
- Economy, Heat, Air, Water and floods, Food and farming, Pakistan and South Asia
The answer in 3 sentences
What does the World Bank's Pakistan CCDR say?
The World Bank's Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), published in November 2022 after that year's heatwaves and floods, finds that climate change and environmental degradation together could reduce Pakistan's annual GDP by 18 to 20 percent by 2050 (p. 17). Climate change alone accounts for 6.5 to 9.0 percent of GDP, and air pollution damage adds another 6.5 percent of GDP a year (p. 17). Heat is a major driver: its effects on workers' productivity and health account for up to 6 percent of the GDP loss by 2050 (p. 13).
Key findings
- A large hit to the economy. Climate change, environmental degradation and air pollution "could ultimately reduce annual GDP by 18 to 20 percent per year by 2050, based on the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively". (World Bank Pakistan CCDR 2022; p. 17)
- Climate change alone. "Between 6.5 and 9.0 percent of GDP will likely be lost due to climate change (in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively)." (World Bank Pakistan CCDR 2022; p. 17)
- Air pollution: 6.5 percent of GDP. "Damage from air pollution is estimated to impose an additional loss of 6.5 percent of GDP per year." This counts pollution-linked GDP losses from death and disability, and premature deaths valued using the value of a statistical life. (World Bank Pakistan CCDR 2022; p. 17)
- Shorter lives. Air pollution shortens the average Pakistani's life expectancy by 4.3 years compared with meeting the WHO air quality guideline. (World Bank Pakistan CCDR 2022; p. 16)
- Heat hits workers. "Heatwaves are a major threat to Pakistan's labor force", and maximum temperatures "routinely exceed 40°C". Heat effects on labour productivity and health account for up to 6 percent of GDP loss by 2050, and heat damage to crops and livestock up to 3 percent. (World Bank Pakistan CCDR 2022; pp. 9, 13)
- The 2022 floods. More than 1,700 people died, a third of them children, and 33 million people were affected. Damage was estimated at US$14.9 billion, losses at US$15.2 billion and needs at US$16.3 billion. (World Bank Pakistan CCDR 2022; p. 6)
- Water used poorly. At 37 cents per cubic metre, agricultural water productivity in Pakistan is in the lowest tenth worldwide. About 12 billion cubic metres of irrigation water will need to be reallocated over the next three decades. (World Bank Pakistan CCDR 2022; p. 27)
Key numbers
| Figure | What it measures | Year or period | Original page |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 20% | Possible loss of annual GDP from climate change, environmental degradation and air pollution combined (optimistic to pessimistic scenario) | By 2050 | 17 |
| 6.5 to 9.0% | GDP likely lost due to climate change alone | By 2050 | 17 |
| 6.5% | Additional GDP loss per year from air pollution damage (death and disability) | Per year | 17 |
| 4.3 years | Average life expectancy lost to air pollution, compared with meeting the WHO guideline | Present | 16 |
| Up to 6% | Share of GDP loss caused by heat effects on labour productivity and health | By 2050 | 13 |
| 700,000+ | Residents of central and eastern Punjab exposed to heatwaves | Present | 10 |
| US$14.9 billion | Damage from the 2022 floods | 2022 | 6 |
Source: World Bank Group (2022), Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report. Page numbers are the printed page numbers.
What it means for people in Pakistan
The report treats climate change as an economic problem, not only an environmental one. When it is too hot to work, people earn less and produce less, and the report finds this is one of the biggest ways climate change will cost Pakistan (p. 13). Outdoor workers, farm labourers and people in hot districts of Punjab and Sindh are most exposed.
Air pollution is the other big cost. The 6.5 percent of GDP figure (p. 17) describes the economic value of illness and early death from dirty air. It is the figure news outlets quote when they say air pollution costs Pakistan "6.5 percent of GDP". The report also notes that farming employs over 40 percent of Pakistan's workers and makes up 23 percent of GDP (p. 25), so heat and water stress on farms reach a large share of families.
On money, Pakistan's National Adaptation Plan quotes the CCDR as finding that Pakistan needs to invest US$348 billion by 2030, or 10.7 percent of GDP a year, in adaptation and deep decarbonisation (NAP 2023, p. 8).
What the report does not say
- The 18 to 20 percent figure is a modelled scenario for 2050, not a forecast that the economy will shrink by that much. It compares a future with these damages to one without them.
- The 6.5 percent air pollution figure is an estimate built on the value of a statistical life. It is not money that leaves the economy in cash each year.
- The report was written before Pakistan's 2025 NDC 3.0. Its finance figures refer to the earlier 2021 NDC (p. 23).
- It is a World Bank analysis, not government policy, although Pakistan's National Adaptation Plan draws on it.
How to cite this report
Please cite the original report, not this summary.
APA 7
World Bank Group. (2022). Pakistan country climate and development report. CCDR Series. World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38277
Harvard
World Bank Group (2022) Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38277 (Accessed: 5 November 2026).