Smog in Pakistan: what the evidence says

The short answer

Why does smog come back every winter?

Smog in Lahore and across Punjab is mostly pollution that is in the air all year, from vehicles, industry, brick kilns and burning. In winter, cold, still air near the ground traps it, a pattern called a temperature inversion, so it builds up instead of blowing away. Pakistan's first national air pollution landscape report found that in Lahore, transport causes about 35% of primary fine-particle (PM2.5) emissions, industry 28% and brick kilns 17%, and in winter temperature inversions trap that pollution near the ground (PAQI 2025, pp. 11, 54). Lahore's yearly average PM2.5 was about 105 micrograms per cubic metre in 2023 and 2024, about 21 times the World Health Organization's guideline (PAQI 2025, p. 258, Table A2).

What the evidence says, source by source

Pakistan Air Quality Initiative: Unveiling Pakistan's Air Pollution (2025)

• Air pollution reduces life expectancy in Pakistan by an estimated 3.9 years and contributes to about 128,000 premature deaths a year (PAQI 2025, pp. 10, 144).
• Lahore bears the heaviest burden: residents lose an average of seven years of life (PAQI 2025, p. 10).
• In Lahore, primary PM2.5 emissions are dominated by transport (35%), industry (28%) and brick kilns (17%). In Karachi, industry is the largest source (49%); in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, transport (53%) (PAQI 2025, p. 11).
• The report sets out a pathway to cut emissions by up to 50%, through measures such as electric two- and three-wheelers, cleaner industry and brick kilns, continuous emissions monitoring and airshed-based governance (PAQI 2025, pp. 11, 56, 58 to 59, 68).

World Bank: Striving for Clean Air (2022)

• Air pollution crosses city, provincial and national borders and gets trapped in large "airsheds" shaped by climate and geography. The report finds that "less than half of the air pollution in South Asia's major cities is produced within cities." (World Bank press release, 14 December 2022)
• Beyond large industry, power plants and vehicles, South Asia has big extra sources: burning solid fuels for cooking and heating, small industries such as brick kilns, and burning municipal and agricultural waste. (same source)
• PM2.5 in some of the region's most crowded and poorest areas is up to 20 times higher than the WHO's healthy level of 5 µg/m³. Air pollution causes an estimated 2 million premature deaths across South Asia each year. (same source)
• The most cost-effective plan, with full coordination across airsheds, would cut average PM2.5 exposure in South Asia to 30 µg/m³ and save more than 750,000 lives a year. (same source)

World Bank: Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report (2022)

• Air pollution damage costs Pakistan an estimated additional 6.5% of GDP a year, counting illness, disability and premature deaths. (Pakistan CCDR, 2022; p. 17).

UNICEF Pakistan (November 2024)

• During the November 2024 smog, UNICEF said "over 11 million children under five years of age are exposed to this smog in the worst affected districts" of Punjab. (UNICEF statement, 11 November 2024)
• Air pollution in Lahore and Multan that week was more than 100 times the WHO guideline. Even before those record levels, about 12% of deaths of children under five in Pakistan were due to air pollution. (same source)

World Health Organization

• WHO's 2021 air quality guidelines set the safe level for PM2.5 at 5 µg/m³ as a yearly average and 15 µg/m³ as a 24-hour average. (WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines, 2021, p. xvii, Table 0.1)
• In 2019, 99% of the world's people lived in places where WHO guideline levels were not met, and outdoor air pollution caused an estimated 4.2 million premature deaths worldwide. (WHO fact sheet, Ambient (outdoor) air pollution, 24 October 2024)

Key numbers

Who is most at risk

• Children. UNICEF calls young children the most at risk, and estimates that about 12% of under-five deaths in Pakistan were already due to air pollution before the 2024 record levels.
• Older people, pregnant women and people with heart, lung or breathing conditions, or diabetes. These groups are named in the winter smog advisory prepared by the National Institute of Health, Islamabad (as reported by Dawn, 23 November 2025).
• People who cannot avoid the air. Traffic police, street vendors, rickshaw and delivery drivers, construction workers and brick kiln workers spend long hours outdoors near the main pollution sources.

What is still uncertain

• How much comes from where. Source shares differ by city, by season and by study method. Crop residue burning is often blamed for smog, but it is not among the three largest sources of Lahore's emissions in the PAQI inventory. Pollution also crosses city, provincial and national borders, which is why the World Bank recommends planning by airshed, not city by city.
• Life expectancy figures. Estimates of years of life lost depend on the health model used, so different reports give different numbers for the same city. Treat them as a measure of scale, not an exact count.
• Daily AQI readings. Readings from low-cost sensors, government monitors and apps can differ on the same day. Use one trusted source consistently, and look at trends over several days.

What you can do on a smoggy day

This advice comes from the National Institute of Health's winter smog advisory, as reported by Dawn (23 November 2025).

• Spend less time outdoors, especially during peak smog hours, and keep children's outdoor play short.
• When you must go out, wear a good-quality N95 mask.
• Keep windows and doors closed on the worst days, and don't add to the air indoors: no smoking, and no burning rubbish or wood.
• Drink plenty of water.
• See a doctor if you have breathing problems, chest pain, or symptoms that persist or get worse. Pregnant women, older people and anyone with heart or lung disease should be extra careful.

One more thing everyone can do: don't burn rubbish or leaves, because open burning is one of the sources that adds to winter smog.

Related reading

• What Pakistan's $10 million Clean Air Fund does and does not say
• World Bank Pakistan CCDR: summary
• Heatwaves in Pakistan: what the evidence says
• Heard this claim? Climate claims, checked
• Key facts with original page references

How to cite this guide

You may cite this guide as an overview. For a specific number, please cite the original report and page listed above.