UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026: what is the emissions gap?

Report at a glance

The answer in 3 sentences

What is the emissions gap in UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026?

The Emissions Gap Report 2026, or EGR 2026, explains the emissions gap: the difference between projected emissions and the emissions consistent with a temperature pathway. It finds that current pledges fall short of the immediate, deep cuts needed to limit temperature overshoot, a temporary rise above a warming goal. Faster cuts still limit harm, while bringing warming back down also needs substantial carbon dioxide removal. (UNEP, 2026, pp. xiv, xviii to xx)

Key findings

• Global greenhouse gas emissions were estimated at 58.4 ± 5.5 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2025; uncertainty prevents a conclusion that total emissions fell or peaked. (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, 2026; p. xiv to xv)
• The lowest-overshoot scenario requires global greenhouse gas cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all against 2025 levels. (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, 2026; p. xviii)
• The latest national pledges imply much smaller cuts: 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels, depending on conditionality. (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, 2026; p. xviii)
• Continuing current policies gives a 66% chance of limiting warming to 2.8°C by 2100, with temperatures continuing to rise afterwards. (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, 2026; p. xx)
• Delivering all national pledges and maintaining similar effort afterwards gives a 66% chance of limiting warming to 2.6°C by 2100. (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, 2026; p. xx)
• Policy effectiveness depends on design, ambition, local conditions and access to finance; the evidence base is especially thin for lower-income settings. (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, 2026; p. 63)

Key numbers

Source: Emissions Gap Report 2026: The point of return - Urgent emissions cuts needed to come back from overshoot of 1.5°C (2026). Page numbers above use the printed report, unless a PDF page is explicitly named.

What it means for Pakistan and the Global South

The global temperature and emissions scenarios are not projections of Pakistan's local climate, nor national emissions targets. Pakistan is mentioned as an example of promoting public transport among emergency energy-policy responses (Table 3.4, p. 25).

For developing countries, the report stresses that cheaper renewable technology needs supportive institutions, regulation, suitable ownership arrangements and access to finance to translate into deployment. It also warns that many potentially successful policies in lower-income settings have never been evaluated (p. 63).

The report does not supply a Pakistan-specific temperature projection or a Pakistan-specific emissions-gap estimate.

What the report does not say

• The emissions-cut percentages are global scenario benchmarks against 2025 emissions. They are not allocated national obligations (pp. xiv, xviii).
• The temperature figures are conditional projections with stated probabilities, not a certain forecast (p. xx).
• Overshoot does not make further action pointless. Faster cuts limit its magnitude and duration; returning to lower warming also requires substantial carbon dioxide removal (p. xiv).
• Near-flat estimated total emissions do not establish that emissions have peaked, given the uncertainty (pp. xiv to xv).

How to cite this report

Please cite the original report, not this summary.

Related reading

• Key facts with original page references
• Source directory
• How do you tell good climate information from bad?
• Climate Foundations
• IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report summary