Is Jakarta sinking because of climate change.

How fast is Jakarta sinking?

On average, about 3.5 cm a year, according to Indonesia's national research agency BRIN (reported by the Jakarta Post, January 2026). The north sinks fastest. BRIN researcher Yus Budiyono says parts of the city have dropped by as much as 4 metres over four decades, and describes the north as turning into a "bowl".

You will see much bigger and much smaller numbers elsewhere. That does not mean someone is lying. It usually means they measured a different place, a different set of years, or used a different method. The next section sets them side by side.

Where sources disagree

What we conclude: the figures tied to a named study and a clear place and period fall between about 1 and 7 cm a year, with 3.5 cm as the best citywide average we found. The higher numbers may be true for small spots or older periods, but we could not trace them to a measurement, so we do not rely on them.

How much of Jakarta is below sea level? Sources differ here too. Climate scientist Edvin Aldrian told Al Jazeera in 2022 that about 40 per cent of Jakarta lies below sea level. The Jakarta Post's 2026 report gives the same 40 per cent, but reads as describing the northern area, not the whole city. Our reading: a large share of the city, concentrated in the north, is now below the sea. Treat "40 per cent of the whole city" as a rough figure.

Why is it sinking?

The best-supported answer is groundwater. Wells pull water from the layers of sand and clay under the city. As the water leaves, the layers compact, and the ground above settles. Some compaction may be permanent, and stopping extraction will not stop all sinking at once.

• Hendarto and Standing (2019) say pumping is "thought to be the primary cause" of subsidence, and list the weight of buildings and tunnelling as other contributors.
• BRIN says the main driver is "excessive groundwater extraction".
• Researchers Zahratu Shabrina and Emma Colven point to a core problem: there is no reliable piped water supply, so many households and businesses keep drilling.
• Bosman Batubara of the National University of Singapore names both urban development and deep groundwater extraction as the two main drivers.

The city has tried to act. Governor Regulation No. 93 of 2021 created "groundwater-free zones". From 1 August 2023, large buildings (5,000 square metres or more, or eight floors or more) in nine named districts and along 12 main roads may no longer use groundwater (CNN Indonesia, January 2022). Most of those districts are business areas such as SCBD and Kuningan, plus the Pulo Gadung industrial estate. Homes elsewhere are not covered, and the Jakarta Post reports that the current governor is planning to tighten the rules. A new PAM Jaya water tariff began in January 2025, aimed at paying for a wider piped network. The water company's director said the old tariffs had not changed for 17 years.

So where does climate change come in?

In two ways, and neither is the main reason the land is going down.

1. Sea-level rise. Global average sea level rose about 3.7 mm a year between 2006 and 2018 (IPCC AR6 Working Group 1, Summary for Policymakers, A.1.7). Now compare that with the land:

• Citywide average sinking: 3.5 cm is 35 mm a year. That is about 9 times the global rise.
• Worst northern areas: 7 cm is 70 mm a year. That is about 19 times the global rise.

This is our own arithmetic from the figures above, and local sea level near Jakarta can differ from the global average. But the gap is large. The ground is dropping far faster than the sea is rising.

2. Heavier rain. Flooding in Jakarta comes from rivers overflowing, intense rain and sea water coming in. A warming climate makes heavy rain more intense. Because Jakarta is lower, the same rain floods more streets. Yus Budiyono estimates flood losses of at least US$186 million a year, rising to US$421 million by 2030 if the sinking continues.

Put together: groundwater pumping digs the hole, and climate change makes the hole fill with water more often.

What about the new capital?

In 2019 Indonesia announced it would move its capital from Jakarta to Nusantara, on Borneo (East Kalimantan), about 1,290 km away. The sinking was part of the reason given, along with pollution, crowding, and a wish to spread development beyond Java.

Where things stand in 2026, according to the news reports we read:

• Jakarta is still the working capital.
• Counts of who has moved differ. The state news agency Antara says about 2,000 government staff were working in Nusantara by March 2026, with a target of about 4,000 civil servants by 2028. NPR counts about 1,000 civil servants among roughly 10,000 residents of the core government district. The two are counting different groups, but both show a small fraction of what was planned.
• A 2025 presidential regulation calls Nusantara the "political capital" by 2028. Experts and lawmakers were confused by the change in wording (NPR, April 2026).
• The project is estimated at more than US$30 billion. State funding was cut in half for 2026, and the 2027 budget bill sets aside Rp 6.7 trillion (about US$377 million) for the authority (Jakarta Post, August 2026).

The move will not stop Jakarta sinking. Millions of people still live there, and the ground under them keeps settling until the pumping stops.

Three ways to read this story

1. A headline says Jakarta is sinking because of climate change. Half true. Climate change worsens the flooding. The sinking itself is mostly groundwater.
2. A headline says the capital is being abandoned. Not yet. The move is partial and slow, and Jakarta remains the capital today.
3. A headline says the city will be fully underwater by 2050. We could not trace that to a study. The closest figure we found is a BRIN warning, reported by The Conversation in 2021, that around 25 per cent of the capital area could be submerged by 2050 without strong action.

A quick check you can copy

Before sharing a climate story, ask:

• What is the number, and who measured it?
• Where and over which years?
• Is it a measurement or a model?
• What does the source say caused it, and what does it say did not?

See how we check climate claims, explore the Research library, or start with our Key facts.

Key takeaways

• Jakarta is sinking about 3.5 cm a year on average, and up to about 7 cm a year in the north by one model.
• The main cause is groundwater pumping, not climate change.
• Climate change adds rising seas and heavier rain, which raise the flood risk.
• Indonesia's capital move is real but partial. Jakarta is still the capital in 2026.
• Fixing piped water and reducing pumping is the most direct way to slow the sinking.

Quick answers

Is Jakarta really sinking?

Yes. BRIN estimates an average of 3.5 cm a year, faster in the north, and a large share of the northern city is now below sea level.

Is Jakarta sinking because of climate change?

Mainly no. Groundwater extraction is the main driver. Climate change worsens flooding through sea-level rise and heavier rain.

Is Indonesia moving its capital because Jakarta is sinking?

The sinking was one reason among several, along with crowding, pollution and balancing development across the country.

Can Jakarta stop sinking?

Researchers say the sinking can slow if people use piped water instead of wells and the aquifers recover, though it will not stop overnight.

Spotted an error? Tell us at [email protected].